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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Business tendency surveys in selected countries and their forecasting ability
 Březinová, Eliška ; Fischer, Jakub (advisor) ; Dubská, Drahomíra (referee)
Business tendency survey as a part of expectations surveys should provide valuable information on the future evolution of the economy represented by the indicator of gross domestic product. The thesis contains a brief description of the Harmonized System of the Business tendency survey that is created by the European Commission and the OECD. The system provides advice and recommendation to member and non member countries of the European Union. The aim of this thesis is to compare models containing gross domestic product and the various confidence indicators compiled for the six selected countries of the European Union. Emphasis is placed on verification of the ability of each indicator to predict the evolution of gross domestic product. The thesis uses appropriate methods of time series analysis, especially cointegration analysis and VAR models.
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Construction of the composite leading and coincidence indicators for the Czech Republic
 Zeman, Jan ; Fischer, Jakub (advisor) ; Dubská, Drahomíra (referee)
Gross Domestic Product represents the basic indicator of macroeconomic performance of the Czech economy and its importance is growing. The need to get the information on its development as quickly as possible for the necessary government actions is unquestionable, but the time taken to publish its first quarterly estimate of growth rate is significantly longer (45 days after the reference quarter) in comparison to other countries. The aim of this thesis is to attempt the construction of composite leading and coincidence indicator to estimate quarterly GDP changes, starting 30 days after the reference quarter. The methods of time series analysis, by which the relationships among GDP and indicators available in this 30-day period and possibly entering this composite leading, respectively coincidence indicator are analyzed, are used.
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